CBRE’s Updated U.S. Hosting Forecast Now Available

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Recent trends show emerging signs of weakening; the pace of improvement has slowed in most markets and we are seeing a general reversal of trends in others.

Recent trends show emerging signs of weakening; the pace of improvement has slowed in most markets and we are seeing a general reversal of trends in others.

We have competing dynamics at play. On the one hand, children have gone back to school and parents have returned to their offices (to varying degrees), which hinders leisure travel, but potentially stimulates travel. business. On the other hand, increasing COVID cases and hospitalizations are reducing the benefits of rising vaccination rates and people’s willingness to continue living in a post-pandemic world.

Regarding hotel fundamentals in general, we expect the trends to ease again as the fall and winter season approaches, especially in northern markets or in cold weather; however, individuals adjust to the new normal and we don’t expect trends to test the lows seen at the start of the pandemic.

Our forecast is for most major US markets to recover by 2024, but the main “winners” and “losers” may look completely different from what they were in 2019.

  • Winners / Losers: Sunbelt markets and leisure destinations are expected to rebound quickly, while group-oriented hotels, northern markets and global gateways dependent on inbound international travel (e.g. Latin America) are expected to lag in 2025 and 2026.
  • Group trends: Convention travel will pick up in low-cost markets first with low-cost airlift and relatively fewer health restrictions. These are markets where attendees feel more comfortable socializing outdoors and given the wide availability of convention space, organizers can easily choose warmer weather and low-cost destinations. operating, such as Dallas, New Orleans, San Antonio, Las Vegas, or Orlando, among others.
  • Business trip: Major city hotels in high operating cost markets will continue to experience softer trends due to a delayed return to power and the “great southward migration” that took place during the pandemic. We expect business travelers to take fewer but longer trips to minimize the environmental impact (ESG pressure from large companies / investors) and exposure to COVID theft, and to extend their trips across leisure markets to integrate stays on the shoulders.
  • Big picture: US demand will recover by 2023 and ADR in 2024, but occupancy rates will remain below previous peaks due to wage pressures and labor shortages as operators strive to maximize the rate in relation to the surge in occupations. Over time, as outbound international travel picks up, we may see occupancy rates weaken in high-end resort markets that have benefited from increased demand for luxury leisure created by travel restrictions. international, but we do not expect to take full advantage of the pricing performance. over the past year to reverse.
  • Costs (capital and operating) will remain a key area: We expect hard-hit owners to react aggressively as brands re-enforce brand standards, FF&E and 7, 14 reservations and renewal investments. Owners of branded properties will strive to keep costs down by limiting benefits to clients who have booked directly, but technology-enhanced revenue generation tactics will be needed to normalize profits.

To purchase and immediately download our updated forecasts, go here.

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© 2021 Hotel News Resource


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